Kenya Met Forecasts Uneven March–May 2026 Long Rains: Floods, Heat Risks, and Dry Spells Expected Across the Country

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released its Long Rains outlook for March to May 2026. Rainfall is expected to vary across the country. Some regions will get above-average rains. Others will face below-average totals. Officials warned of possible flooding, landslides, and heat-related risks in several areas.

Counties around Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi and parts of the Rift Valley, are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. Meteorologists say some places may experience heavy downpours. This could trigger localised floods and landslides.

In contrast, the South-eastern lowlands and North-eastern Kenya are projected to get near-average to below-average rains. Some parts of the northwest may see poorly distributed rainfall. Dry spells could affect farming, livestock grazing, and water supplies.

The Coastal Region, covering Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and coastal Tana River, is expected to get below-average rainfall. However, isolated heavy showers could occur, especially later in the season. Peak rainfall along the coast is forecasted for May, later than in most other regions.

Edward M. Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services, said April could see heavy rainfall in many areas. He added that rainfall may be uneven, with dry periods between wet spells. Farmers and local authorities are advised to prepare for unpredictable conditions.

KMD also expects above-average temperatures across the country. High heat could increase risks, particularly in arid and semi-arid areas, coastal counties, and urban centres. Residents are urged to stay alert and take precautions against heat stress, flooding, and landslides.

The forecast was released after the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-12) held in Nairobi. Meteorologists encouraged communities to monitor weather updates closely. They also urged careful management of water and agricultural resources.

As the Long Rains season approaches, Kenyans are advised to stay vigilant. Planning for floods, heat, and dry spells can help protect lives, property, and livelihoods.