“Opposition Suppressed, Elections Controlled” – Analysts Describe Tanzania Polls as New Normal

Tanzanians went to the polls on Wednesday amid a tightly managed election, where major opposition figures were jailed or barred from running. Human rights groups warned of a “wave of terror,” citing enforced disappearances, torture and extrajudicial killings targeting activists and critics. Analysts say the election is likely to consolidate President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s hold on power.

Samia , 65, became Tanzania’s first female president in 2021 following the death of John Magufuli. Initially praised for loosening restrictions on opposition parties and media, her early reforms appear to have stalled. Voting in semi-autonomous Zanzibar showed a slightly more competitive contest due to the island’s relative freedoms, while foreign journalists were largely blocked from observing votes on the mainland.

The president’s main challenger, Tundu Lissu of Chadema, is facing a treason trial with a potential death sentence, and his party remains barred from contesting. Another contender, Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, was disqualified over technical issues. Even some ruling party members face risks; former CCM spokesman Humphrey Polepole disappeared after criticizing Samia.

Human rights organizations report that Hassan has retained Magufuli-era security forces, known for suppressing dissent. Amnesty International documented abductions and harassment, while Human Rights Watch highlighted media restrictions and the compromised independence of the electoral commission. The Tanganyika Law Society confirmed 83 abductions since Hassan took office, with 20 more reported recently.

Observers warn that strategies used in the 2020 elections may now be the “new normal.” A Dar es Salaam analyst said: “We thought 2020 was abnormal. My worry is this is the new normal.” Protests remain rare, aided by a stable economy growing 5.5 percent last year, fueled by agriculture, tourism, and mining.

Hassan is campaigning on infrastructure expansion and universal health coverage to win voter support. Police recently arrested 17 people in Kagera region, allegedly plotting unrest. At a rally, the president assured citizens: “No one should disrupt the election. We are well-prepared for security.”

As votes are cast, Tanzania faces a delicate balance between economic stability and democratic freedoms, raising concerns about political consolidation and the continued suppression of opposition voices.