Venezuela’s Fragile Economic Comeback: Oil Revenue Hopes Lift Markets as Inflation and Uncertainty Continue to Loom

Venezuela’s economy is showing early signs of life after months of stagnation. Higher oil output and policy shifts are driving cautious optimism. Analysts say rising crude income could ease cash shortages and revive a dry currency market.

Economist Asdrubal Oliveros said stronger oil earnings may stabilize the bolivar. They could also reduce pressure on dollar demand. For weeks, the government had little access to foreign currency. Crypto inflows also slowed. As uncertainty grew, speculation surged. The parallel dollar jumped more than 50 percent. It climbed to nearly 800 bolivars.

After US airstrikes on Saturday, January 3, activity began to stir. The strikes led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. Traders reported slight improvements across some sectors. Confidence remains weak, but movement is visible.

“Little by little, the economy is reactivating,” said Carmen Alvarez. She represents informal traders in western Caracas. She said consumers are returning slowly. Dollar payments are stabilizing. Volatility has eased. Food sales are rising as families focus on essentials.

By the weekend, the unofficial dollar fell sharply. It dropped to about 530 bolivars. Analysts linked the fall to optimism around oil negotiations. Possible sanctions relief also played a role. Still, risks remain high. Prices rose earlier in the week. Weak confidence and low reserves fueled inflation fears.

Economists warn the recovery is fragile. “Venezuela is on the brink of hyperinflation,” said Jose Guerra. He is a former central bank chief. He said only a peaceful and constitutional transition can restore stability and trust.

Oxford University visiting professor Jose Manuel Puente echoed the warning. He said easing sanctions could improve expectations. It could also attract US and global investors. However, rebuilding will be hard. Venezuela’s oil sector needs nearly $100 billion each year. Negotiations will shape progress.

Looking ahead, Oliveros said 2026 opened with a major policy shift. It could redefine the economy. “Politics and economics have never been so intertwined,” he said.